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<title>ThinkBlog</title>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/</link>
<description></description>
<copyright>Copyright 2008</copyright>
<lastBuildDate>Mon, 25 Aug 2008 19:53:57 -0800</lastBuildDate>
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<item>
<title>All Eyes on Beijing</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>From the over-the-top opening ceremony extravaganza, to the spell binding performances of athletes such as Michael Phelps and Usain "Lightning" Bolt, China's "Debutante Ball" has been a smashing success.</p>

<p>The Olympics have always been more than a sporting event but also a cultural, political and media spectacle that isn't replicated by anything else. Two billion people tuned in from around the world for the opening ceremony with the overall Olympics being set to be "the biggest broadcast event in Olympic history," according to IOC Director of Marketing Timo Lumme.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/08/all_eyes_on_bei_1.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/08/all_eyes_on_bei_1.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 25 Aug 2008 19:53:57 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Tiger Stripes</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>There is an old fable of "the Alligator and the Scorpion" which I often think of when I'm trying to figure out why somebody behaves the way he does.</p>

<p>As the story goes, a scorpion is stuck on the wrong side of the river as fire is raging, trapping him between the fire and the water. Desperate, the scorpion sees an alligator in the river and asks if he would give him a lift to safety to the other side of the river.</p>

<p>Thinking about it for a second, the alligator says "I can't bring you to the other side of the river. You will sting me and I will die." </p>

<p>The scorpion replied, "Oh no, I surely wouldn't sting you if you saved my life and brought me safely to other side of the river."</p>

<p>So the alligator agrees and puts the scorpion on his shoulder and swims across the river. As he approaches the shore, the scorpion stings him. Shocked and dying, the alligator with his last breath says to the scorpion, "you promised that you wouldn't sting me. I saved your life.  How could you do this to me?"</p>

<p>The scorpion replied. "Sorry, it's just my nature."</p>
]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/08/tiger_stripes_1.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/08/tiger_stripes_1.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 18:05:57 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Mama Told Me Not to Come</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>08/08/08 and all the world's attention will be focused on the Middle Kingdom.  10,000 athletes, 20,000 media personnel and millions of spectators will all be in the mix for the XXIX Olympiad competing in, writing on, and watching 28 sports and 302 events over the three weeks.</p>

<p>Like Tokyo in 1964 and Seoul in 1988, the 2008 Beijing Olympics was scripted to thrust China on to the forefront global importance and properly anoint China as the King of the Pacific Century.  Already the 4th Largest economy in the World (up from 7th at the turn of the century), it's expected to overtake the United States as the largest economy on Earth by 2050 (could happen much quicker if the Yuan was allowed to float freely). Since Deng Xie Peng implemented the hybrid "Commi-Capitalism" 30 years ago, 400 million Chinese have been brought out of poverty into the middle class. (See Ted Koppel's excellent Four Part Discovery Series "the People's Republic of Capitalism" <a href="http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/koppel/highlights/highlights.html" target="_blank">http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/koppel/highlights/highlights.html</a>)</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/08/mama_told_me_no_1.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/08/mama_told_me_no_1.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:34:01 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>EARNINGS, EARNINGS and REVENUES</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Midway through second quarter earnings season and it's obvious why stocks are off over 20% from their October highs, right?  With 249 of the S&P 500 companies reporting 2Q results, it looks like EPS "growth" for the second quarter will be negative 18%.  Since our fundamental philosophy is that EARNINGS GROWTH DRIVES STOCK PRICES over time, the stock world seems to be in perfect harmony with its corresponding business performance. </p>

<p>Every crime needs a criminal and it would be so tidy if we could just point to the problems with the earnings results and say "voila".  Alas, if only things were so simple.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/07/earnings_earnin_1.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/07/earnings_earnin_1.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jul 2008 20:24:21 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Into The Woods?</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>With the Dow reaching a 20% decline from its October peak and officially entering "Bear Market" territory, it's natural to feel beaten and broken.  More depressing, globally, stocks had their worse first six months in 26 years and with direct correlation, there wasn't a venture backed IPO for the entire quarter for the first time in 30 years.  General Motors, which was once and maybe again the proxy for the welfare of America ("how GM goes so goes the country"), fell to a market cap level it hadn't seen since Gerald Ford was passing out W.I.N. (whip inflation now) buttons and at one point on Thursday, was at a price it hadn't seen since Dwight Eisenhower was President.</p>

<p>Core inflation - just 1% 18 months ago - has reached 4.4%.  Non-core inflation including energy and food is up 8% (only an economist could rationalize how energy and food weren't "core").  Moreover, oil is up over 40% year-to-date and commodities are up over 30%.  The flat world is getting pumped up with 60% of the countries world-wide experiencing 10% or greater inflation in 2008.  It's no mystery that gold is surging at over $900 an ounce and the dollar has fallen 40% in the past five years.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/into_the_woods.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/into_the_woods.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 19:28:17 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Reboot</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>In trying to keep my head above water in the swirling market seas we’ve been facing, I was tempted to talk about “Negatrend” investment opportunities which I see (the opposite of megatrends). After all, with oil surging, financial stocks purging and markets unable to show any forward wind, we might as well focus on what is going to the bottom of the sea. </p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/reboot.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/reboot.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jun 2008 14:18:35 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>The Rise and the Rest</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>It's been predicted for 25 years that the United State's position as the &uuml;ber global power would fade away as other empires had done before.  Paul Kennedy wrote <em>The Rise and Fall of Powers</em> in 1987 chronicling the pattern of civilizations emerging as the global leader only to proceed to an inevitable decline.</p>

<p>The Chinese Dynasty was the oldest and had the largest tenure, going from 2000 B.C. to 1911 A.D. Paper, watches and gunpowder were all inventions of the Chinese. The Babylonian Empire went from 612 to 539 B.C. The Persian Empire reigned from 560 B.C. to 636 A.D. The Greek Empire went from 500 B.C. to 146 B.C.   The Roman Empire became the most powerful civilization ever known from 40 B.C. to 400 A.D. Britain's power and influence was paramount from 1497 A.D. to 1917 A.D. The nearly 100 years with the United States as the most important economic, political and cultural power started after World War I.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/the_rise_and_th_1.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/the_rise_and_th_1.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Mon, 16 Jun 2008 18:36:29 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>1 i P.</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>A year ago, we wrote that the launch of the iPhone marked a new era - previously there was B.C., then there was A.D., and now it is i.P.</p>

<p>It was not our keen eye for a phenomenon that fueled our enthusiasm - we would have had to be deaf, dumb and blind not to have not noticed the lines of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL, $185.64) Moonies lining up to participate in history (even then we would have had to trip over them on our walkabouts on University Avenue in Palo Alto).  "Smart phones" weren't that new - having a computer in your pocket was.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/1_i_p_1.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/1_i_p_1.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jun 2008 21:40:26 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Energy in the Air</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p><em>History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.</em> - Mark Twain.</p>

<p>Going through my weekly ritual of powering through Friday's edition of Investor's Business Daily, I was struck by the section which features 200 or so stocks that are exhibiting the greatest fundamental and relative strength. </p>

<p>Almost every company highlighted was associated with the energy business - either oil, gas, coal, transportation, tools or fertilizers. Having been a diligent consumer of the IBD for 20 years, a bell started to go off reminding me that last time that I recall an industry group had such an overwhelming representation of the leading stocks was in 1999 with the Internet companies. Remember the sock puppet and Pets.com?</p>
]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/energy_in_the_a_1.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/06/energy_in_the_a_1.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jun 2008 20:06:48 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Where is the Forest?</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Oil Shock - a barrel of Texas Tea sold for over $135 on Thursday.</p>


<p>Gas Shock - it cost me $80 to fill my 17 gallon tank this week.</p>


<p>Milk Shock - at $4 a gallon, it cost almost as much to put milk on my cereal as gas in my car.</p>


<p>Housing Shock - median home values have fallen over 10% in past year.</p>


<p>Bank Shock - banks don't want to lend you money, lend your company money, or even lend other banks money.</p>


<p>Big Daddy Bernanke, after dropping the discount rate 325 basis points since last September to 2%, said he does help out and with 4% inflation, we are going to figure it out for ourselves.</p>


<p>Any questions on why consumer confidence is at 28 year lows?</p>
]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/05/where_is_the_fo_1.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/05/where_is_the_fo_1.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 09:09:01 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>If I Were King</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>I'm not looking for sympathy, but writing a weekly market perspective piece is hard.  Forget the time it takes, just coming up with fresh ideas that make sense is a cause of weekly anxiety that usually starts around Thursday. It's no wonder that one of my market strategist heroes, Barton Biggs, used to occasionally write a book report or he discussed his most recent mountain climbing expedition in his weekly market research for Morgan Stanley - he needed a break from writing what he thought was going on in the market or what stocks to buy or sell.</p>

<p>Given that I feel like I'm sounding like a broken record with market strategy - "BUY LEADING GROWTH STOCKS" - and I haven't compiled all my thoughts from last weeks <strong>Think</strong>Tomorrow~Today conference, I'm going to go off the reservation a little bit and do a political forecast. I know polite people don't discuss religion or politics in public but this is a fascinating race with the consequences likely to have significant impact on both the country and the stock market.</p>
]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/05/if_i_were_king.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/05/if_i_were_king.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 19 May 2008 13:39:44 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>ThinkTomorrow~Today</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Starting Monday night, we will be hosting our Fourth Annual ThinkTomorrow~Today Conference in Half Moon Bay. ThinkTomorrow~Today brings over 500 leading venture capitalist, private companies and industry gurus together to discuss what the future might look like and where the big ideas are going to be found.  </p>

<p>Over the three days, we will have 80 private companies presenting and panels on subjects as diverse as: how to invest in China, the future of mobile computing, and how the flat world is creating opportunities in the online education market.  Keynotes include: Tony Perkins sharing perspective on what's hot; Ron Conway interviewing Marc Andreessen on Ning.com and the internet's future; "Coach of the Valley" Bill Campbell having a fireside chat with Jonathan Rosenberg on how innovation happens at Google (NASDAQ: GOOG, $573.20), and also the Coach will be having a discussion with John Doerr on investing in Green Technology and how the Babe Ruth of venture capital thinks about where he's going to have the opportunity to hit home runs.  Additionally, we will have a screening of the documentary "Two Million Minutes" which shows how American kids are competing against their counterparts around the world - eye opening stuff.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/05/thinktomorrowto.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/05/thinktomorrowto.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 08:28:32 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Sandcastles in the Sky </title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>I spent the last week on a pilgrimage to Dubai the financial Mecca of the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia – the home of Mecca – Mecca. The purpose of my sixteen thousand mile journey, literally half way around the globe, was to seek truth – were the outlandish facts and figures coming out of the Middle East real and sustainable or a bubble that was ready to burst into a mirage in the desert?<br />
</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/05/sandcastles_in.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/05/sandcastles_in.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 05 May 2008 16:52:11 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Cornflakes</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>If one were to mindlessly extrapolate the present to the future, to say 2015, oil would go from $120 to $500 a barrel, corn would be at $15 a bushel and Dubai and Des Moines would be the two most powerful places in the world.</p>

<p>The Euro, which hit a record high last week at $1.60 to the dollar, would be the global currency and the Dali Lama would be at the center of all earthly and heavenly controversies.<br />
</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/04/cornflakes.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/04/cornflakes.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 28 Apr 2008 18:22:18 -0800</pubDate>
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<title>Catalyst, Contrarians and Tipping Points</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p><em>If you would understand anything, observe its beginning and development.</em> - Aristotle</p>

<p>It's very true that what ultimately may become historically gigantic starts with an action that may appear insignificant or unrelated.</p>

<p>When George Washington decided that two terms were enough, and thus the concept of "limited presidency," he abandoned the European monarchy
tradition.</p>

<p>When Archduke Ferdinand heir to the Austria-Hungary throne was assassinated, it became the catalyst for World War I.</p>
]]></description>
<link>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/04/catalyst_contra.html</link>
<guid>http://www.thinkpanmure.com/blog/mt-archive/2008/04/catalyst_contra.html</guid>
<category>Market View</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 21 Apr 2008 20:01:15 -0800</pubDate>
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